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Marian Hossa

Inflation in the Nhl?

Inflation in the NHL?

This year there has been an increase in the need for defenseman.  This differs from every other year because the focus is now on an offensive defenseman, or a puck moving defenseman.  Because of increased need for offense, the salaries are beginning to increase more and more for these defensemen and forwards.

            To examine what the basis for these salaries are, I ran a regression and included the number of games played, goals, assists, points, and the player’s plus/minus rating.  Since the game is being played in an offense concentrated way, these statistics were the best for understanding why the salaries are raising and the players are demanding more.

            After running the regression, all the r-squares were fairly low, but points and assists were the highest of all the categories.  This would make sense because this is what many of the general managers are looking for in the players.  What strikes me as odd is the r-squared of the plus/minus.  This is the lowest of all the categories.  Since the plus/minus is the best way to understand how a player is on both sides of the puck (when only looking at statistics), one would think that this r-squared would be the highest.  There are quite a few players who are making a large amount of money and have a very low plus/minus rating.

When just looking at the numbers, it is clear which players are producing the most offense.  Brain Campbell (defensemen) and Marian Hossa (right wing) were the top two free agents on the market.  Because of their offensive abilities, they were both able to command over seven million dollars in salary.  They both are among the leaders in all categories except plus/minus.  Campbell has a decent plus/minus at eight, but Hossa is at negative fourteen.  This number presents the question, are you really willing to gain a player for offense if he is going to be a defensive reliability?

Where basing salaries on offensive abilities becomes a problem is when a team signs an unproven defensemen to a large salary.  The Toronto Maple Leafs signed Jeff Fingers to a contract worth 3.5 million dollars a year.  Last year Fingers played for the Colorado Avalanche.  During the regular season, he had a good plus/minus, but his offensive production was nowhere near 3.5 million dollars worth.  This increase in salary is driving up numbers, and it is making it hard for other teams to sign there restricted and unrestricted free agents. 

The deal Toronto gave Fingers looks ridiculous when comparing it to other defensemen near his production levels.  Randy Jones at 2.75 million and Brookes Laich at 2 million are both making considerably less money.  Both of these defensemen were able to put up over thirty points and were signed for less money.

The NHL needs to be concerned able these rising salaries.  Player’s salaries are inflating fast and if they are not careful, they are going to start to lose players to the KHL (an international hockey league).  Many times, it is a result of one player being sign for more then he his is worth, such as Jeff Fingers.  Once one player receives this bump in salary, everyone else believes they are worth the same.  If the player’s salaries keep inflating, the NHL is not going to be able to sign star players and they may lose them to international leagues.  This will not help a league which is already lacking the support it needs.  With increased salaries and the decline in the value of the dollar, many players many start to look overseas to play hockey. 

 

To stop the salaries from increasing, it is on the General Managers.  Many managers, such as Paul Holmgren (Philadelphia) and Ken Holland (Detroit), have done a great job in spreading the salary and signing the necessary players.  Others are thinking too brash and are signing players to large contracts, which the player has not earned nor has he shown the potential for.  This needs to change.

This issue is going to make it harder for the NHL to survive.  General Managers need to be more careful with how they are spending their money and where they are spending it.  In my opinion, it would be smarter to look are plus/minus to get a better idea of the player’s offensive and defensive abilities.  Then, after this is examined, look at the players other statistics to see how they can produce for the team.  This will help teams spend wisely and create more space for up and coming prospects.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008 NHL Free Agents

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GP

G

A

P

 +/-

Avery

LW

3,875,000

57

15

18

33

6

Bertuzzi

LW

1,950,000

68

14

26

40

8

Blake

D

5,000,000

71

9

22

31

-19

Campbell

D

7,142,000

83

8

54

62

8

Carter

C

5,000,000

82

29

24

53

6

Commodore

D

3,750,000

67

3

11

14

-7

Cooke

LW

1,200,000

78

10

13

23

1

Demitra

LW

4,000,000

68

15

39

54

9

Ehrhoff

D

3,100,000

77

1

21

22

9

Fedorov

C

4,000,000

68

11

30

41

-5

Fedotenko

RW

2,250,000

67

16

17

33

-9

Finger

D

3,500,000

72

8

11

19

12

Foote

D

3,000,000

75

1

15

16

2

Gaustad

C

2,300,000

82

10

26

36

-4

Gorges

D

1,500,000

62

0

9

9

0

Green

D

5,250,000

82

18

38

56

6

Hagman

LW

3,000,000

82

27

14

41

4

Hainsey

D

4,500,000

78

8

24

32

-7

Holik

C

2,500,000

82

15

19

34

-14

Hossa

RW

7,450,000

72

29

37

66

-14

Huselius

LW

4,750,000

81

25

41

66

10

Jones, M.

D

550,000

45

0

2

2

-13

Jones, R.

D

2,750,000

71

5

26

31

8

Kalinin

D

2,100,000

46

1

7

8

-7

Kostitsyn

LW

3,750,000

78

26

27

53

15

Laich

C

2,033,333

82

21

16

37

-3

Laraque

RW

1,500,000

71

4

9

13

0

Liles

D

4,200,000

81

6

26

32

2

Malone

RW

4,500,000

77

27

24

51

14

Mara

D

1,950,000

61

1

16

17

1

Miettinen

RW

2,333,333

69

15

19

34

4

Morrison

C

2,750,000

39

9

16

25

-3

Naslund

LW

4,000,000

82

25

30

55

-7

Nolan

RW

2,750,000

77

16

16

32

6

Orpik

D

3,750,000

78

1

10

11

11

Perry

RW

5,320,000

70

29

25

54

12

Recchi

RW

1,250,000

72

14

34

48

-18

Redden

D

6,500,000

80

6

32

38

11

Rolston

LW

5,062,500

81

31

28

59

-1

Ryder

RW

4,000,000

70

14

17

31

-4

Salvador

D

2,900,000

64

1

10

11

12

Satan

RW

3,500,000

80

16

25

41

-11

Smith

D

2,600,000

77

1

9

10

-4

Stajan

C

1,750,000

82

16

17

33

-11

Streit

D

4,100,000

81

13

49

62

-6

Stuart

D

3,750,000

82

4

4

8

2

Tucker

RW

2,250,000

74

18

16

34

-8

Vrbata

RW

3,000,000

76

27

29

56

6

Walker

D

600,000

43

1

1

2

-3

Weight

C

4,300,000

67

10

15

25

4

Witt

D

3,000,000

59

2

5

7

-8

Wolski

LW

2,800,000

77

18

30

48

10

*Number gained from www.hockeybuzz.com

 

 

 

 

*This list does not include all free agents for various reasons

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Slope

 

 

56272.12

61283.99

80900.58

49416.22

40876.22

Intercept

 

 

-695754.07

2591953.28

1648200.63

1695907.73

3347784.14

R-Squared

 

 

0.16

0.15

0.38

0.35

0.06

About the Author

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